Successful Adaptation or Maladaptive Failure—Which Way Will We Go?

We must engage Trump supporters in the Transformational Resilience Cycle to address today’s challenges, or go the route of other failed societies

We all know the U.S. is facing unprecedented challenges today. Two of the most threatening are the accelerating impacts of the climate-ecosystem-biodiversity (C-E-B) crisis, and the rise of far-right authoritarianism. The critical question is whether enough Americans will be willing to adapt their beliefs and practices to successfully address these ordeals, or if they will continue to cling to maladaptive thinking and methods and produce calamity.

A few months ago I took the time to reread books by Joseph Tainter, Jared Diamond, and Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson that described how many societies throughout history have collapsed.

These researchers found that societies sometimes imploded due to the overexploitation of natural resources, deforestation, and other issues that led to food, water, energy, or other shortages. Other times hostile neighbors or the loss of key trading partners led to collapse. And many times it was disruptive changes in environmental conditions or ecological disasters that led to collapse. It was unnerving to realize how similar the crises we face now are to those experienced by other failed societies.

Most importantly, these researchers determined that, almost always, it was not external threats themselves that led to collapse. It was whether the majority of people in each society—especially those in positions of authority—were willing to update and adapt their beliefs and practices to clearly see and meaningfully address the challenges they faced. When leaders and much of the populace continued to embrace maladaptive thinking and methods—meaning false, irrational, and inflexible beliefs and behaviors disconnected from reality-- they experienced tragedy.

This pattern is playing out now in the U.S. Unless those now in power, and a majority of residents, alter their beliefs and practices to see and constructively deal with reality, we will likely experience calamity.

Two of Today’s Most Pressing Crises

Let’s start with the C-E-B crisis.

For most of history, human labor, animal muscle, and the burning of wood and crops were the dominant sources of energy. It was not until the Industrial Revolution of the 18th century that the use of fossil fuels really took off. The use of fossil fuels made sense at the time because they significantly increased the wellbeing of many people, and most of the ecological and health impacts were small scale and local.

However, since the mid-1800s the use of fossil fuels has skyrocketed by more than 54 thousand percent, with the vast majority of the increase occurring after WWII. Correlated with that increase has been a rise of global greenhouse gas emissions that recent data shows was 182 times higher in 2022 than in 1850.

For decades the science has been clear that burning more fossil fuels, and degrading forests and other ecosystems that sequester carbon, would increase global temperatures.

So it is no surprise last year, for the first time in recorded history, global temperatures rose by 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels for the entire year. This increase is causing significant physical damage, injuries, and deaths in the U.S. and worldwide. Many irreversible ecological and associated societal impacts are also now likely.

Unfortunately, the worst is yet to come. Noted climate scientist Dr. James Hansen and his team recently reported that, due to emissions humans have already pumped into the atmosphere, and other factors, the chance of keeping temperatures from rising by 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) is now “dead.” Their report stated that temperatures will likely climb that high within just 20 years. This escalation will place all of human civilization at risk.

Hansen’s assessments have almost always been spot on, and this one underscores that there is precious little time remaining to prevent catastrophe. We must do whatever is necessary to limit warming to 2C and then, over many decades, bring temperatures back down to manageable levels.

To accomplish this we now urgently need to make another major energy transition. This one includes immediately halting the use of fossil fuels and powering everything with clean renewable energy. We must also stop degrading, and instead make a major effort to regenerate ecosystems that sequester carbon.

The Rise of U.S. Extreme-Right Authoritarianism

Rather than accepting this reality and adapting their beliefs and practices to put humanity on a safe path, executives of fossil fuel corporations have doubled-down on their decades-long maladaptive thinking and practices of denying climate science and refusing to alter their business models or products. To protect their profits, wealth, and power, they joined other corporate executives and billionaires to promote far-right conspiracy theories, misinformation, and lies to elect Donald Trump as President and empower him to thwart the economic changes that are necessary.

The growth of far-right maladaptive thinking and actions movement has also been spurred by the growing cultural diversity the U.S. has experienced since the 1990s. Non-white residents have nearly doubled since 1990, and LGBTQ+ identities have become more open. Women have challenged traditional gender roles by demanding reproductive rights, equal pay, and greater responsibility in business, government, sports, and other societal functions.

These and other cultural shifts have galvanized the racist, misogynistic, and reactionary beliefs and practices of the far-right. Rather than constructively adapting to the growing diversity by engaging with and learning from people who seem different than them, people with white supremacists traits have instead embraced maladaptive thinking and behaviors. Many have gone so far as to claim they are victims of a conspiracy by woke, liberals, Democrats, communists, and other “others” to “replace” them with non-white undesirable people.

This group joined the fossil fuel and other corporate executives and far-right billionaires to support and fund Trump’s election because he promised to turn back the clock and (re)establish control of society by (mostly white) men.

A large portion of those who oppose our nation’s growing cultural diversity are part of the Christian nationalist movement that is also a major promoter of the Trump administration’s efforts to eviscerate our democracy.

Some of these people are angry about the growing secularization of America. Studies have found that only 63 percent of the U.S. population now self-identifies as Christian, which is down from 75 percent a decade ago, and almost a third of Americans say they have no religious identity at all. This conflicts with the Christian nationalists belief that the U.S. was founded as a Christian nation, a “biblical worldview” is the only valid one, and that America can only be saved if it returns to the (supposedly pure and moral) Christian values of the 18^th century.

Many Christian nationalists are low-income, have low-educational backgrounds, and face sizable economic, health, family, and other struggles. They embrace Christian nationalism because they believe God will help them through their ordeals. They also believe the human-caused climate crisis is a hoax because God is all powerful and would not create a world humans can destroy. Since only God can determine what happens on earth, our actions are inconsequential.

As with most of the other Trump supporters, Christian nationalists refuse to acknowledge or address today’s realities.

Each of these groups has a different motivation, but they joined forces to elect Trump. He rewarded them by imposing the far-right Heritage Institute’s Project 2025 agenda on the American public.

The goal, they claim, is to return America to some “great” condition of years past. To accomplish this they want to liberate the free-market and enable corporate America, the uber rich, and Christian nationalists to control society. So they have unleashed a torrent of actions to gut policies that protect the environment and human health, deregulate industry, privatize health care, education, disaster response, and other public services and resources, reverse cultural and gender diversity, destroy our nation’s bedrock system of checks and balances, embed Christian nationalist doctrine in every aspect of American society, and silence critics, all while (of course) giving huge tax cuts to the super wealthy.

If they succeed, our 250 year old democracy will be demolished, and as history has repeatedly shown, the use of maladaptive beliefs and practices will push us over the edge into calamity.

Transformational Resilience is Needed to Help People Rise Above Maladaptive Thinking and Behaviors

To prevent the authoritarian takeover, people who oppose it must come together to fight back. We must continually shine the light on their weaponization of lies and misinformation, constant grifting of unsuspecting people to make money, and their strategy to use the chaos they create to further enrich and empower the wealthy. Collective resistance, mass demonstrations, lawsuits, voter education, and much more will be needed.

As these actions occur, it will also be very important to engage Trump supporters in what I call the Transformational Resilience Cycle. This describes the process people go through when they use crisis as a catalyst to adapt their thinking and actions in ways that lead to substantially safer and healthier conditions.

The Transformational Resilience Cycle is a modification of what in psychology is called "adversity-based growth." It involves three phases.

The process begins when a crisis significantly challenges the deeply held beliefs people hold about the way the world works and how they should think and act in life. The shock overwhelms their ability to make sense of what has occurred, and leaves them unable to think clearly or respond effectively.

As stated, one of today’s most shocking crisis is the accelerating damage caused by the C-E-B crisis and associated urgency of altering our economic system to abandon fossil fuels and regenerate the natural environment. Another is the threats many people feel from increasing cultural diversity and religious secularism

When they experience a crisis, most people will go to great lengths to maintain their existing beliefs and practices. This can include denying the event, and aggressively pushing back against any possibility that they must alter their thinking and behaviors to address the situation. This is exactly what fossil fuel and corporate executives, white supremacists, and Christian nationalists are doing today.

If their efforts to maintain their old beliefs and practices fails, as it often does when conditions shift in fundamental ways, people enter a period of disarray. They become disoriented and distressed because the beliefs and assumptions that shape their self-identity and give them meaning and purpose in life are in turmoil.

Some people are so overwhelmed by the disarray that they become disconnected from reality. This is called dissociation, and it describes the condition of many Trump supporters today.

Others try to anesthetize themselves to the distress they feel and end up misusing drugs, alcohol, or other substances that cause self-harm and hurt their families and community.

And some blame and abuse their significant other or children for the distress they feel, causing more spousal abuse and Adverse Childhood Experiences, or claim people who look, think, or act differently are responsible for disrupting their lives and attack them with aggression or violence. Many Trump supporters are engaged in these practices.

Transformational Resilience Can Activate Positive Change

The good news is that when people realize that their long-held beliefs and practices are no longer helpful, many come to accept that reality has changed. They then begin to use the disarray as an opportunity to learn new things about the world and themselves. When this occurs they enter the transformation phase.

In this phase people question their long-held assumptions and beliefs and begin to see reality more clearly. The limitations and flaws of their previous ways of thinking and acting become increasingly evident, and they start to test out different ways of perceiving and engaging with the world.

This often leads to new and more beneficial beliefs and behaviors. In the transformation phase people often discover skills and strengths they never thought they had, experience deeper appreciation of life, or develop positive relationships with people they might have previously blamed or attacked. Many people become more empathetic and more generous, which leads to greater happiness. They also experience greater emotional stability, and unearth other qualities that give their lives new positive meaning, direction, and hope.

One outcome is that some people can be motivated to do their part to help reduce the C-E-B crisis to manageable levels. In addition, some might decide to help people entangled in extremist political, cultural, or religious ideology and cults wake up and find their way out.

To be clear, by no means will every corporate executive, far-right billionaire, white supremacist, or Christian nationalist engage in the transformational resilience cycle. At least a third are ideological fanatics that will cling to their maladaptive beliefs and practices even when it is crystal clear that they are producing tremendous harm to others and even to themselves.

But about two thirds of Trump supporters are not extreme zealots. They supported him because they always voted Republican, were unaware of his actual intentions, or were desperately seeking solutions to the despair they experience and lack of self-respect they feel.

If we engage these people in the transformation resilience process, they might be open to change. This can be achieved by organizing events in the neighborhoods and communities that bring people together to share food, play games and laugh, discuss local issues they are concerned about, and jointly plan ways to address them together.

When this is done with patience, empathy, and a focus on building trust and understanding, relationships can be built that motivate people to begin to question their current beliefs and behaviors, try out different ones, and adopt perspectives that enable them to see that Trump and the other authoritarians they support are actually responsible for the vast social and economic inequality that has caused so many of their problems. This can lead to beliefs and practices that can help address today’s challenges without harming themselves, others, or the natural environment.

Time is of the essence. It will not be easy. But taking the effort and time to engage Trump supporters in the Transformational Resilience Cycle is likely to be one of the most important actions we can take to help them overcome their maladaptive beliefs and practices, avoid calamity, and place the U.S. –and global community--on a safer and healthier path.